The heightened global uncertainty due to the US "reciprocal tariffs" on India may cause near-term corrections and market turbulence, but the long-term outlook remains constructive, market experts said on Thursday. The US has announced 27 per cent reciprocal tariffs on India, citing high import duties imposed by New Delhi on American goods.
'When you have the best market at your doorstep, international diversification is a distraction.'
In trade negotiations, as in chess, sometimes you need to accept a temporary disadvantage to secure a better long-term position, points out Sonal Varma, chief economist (India and Asia ex-Japan) at Nomura.
The Indian rupee depreciated a modest 2.9 per cent in the first nine months of the current fiscal, performing better than other currencies like the Canadian Dollar, South Korean Won and the Brazilian Real, according to the Economic Survey tabled in Parliament on Friday. The value of the Indian Rupee (INR) is market-determined, with no target or specific level or band.
From the outcome of the general elections and then Union Budget to tepid corporate earnings in the September 2024 quarter (Q2-FY25), sticky inflation and Reserve Bank of India's stance on interest rates, extreme weather conditions, Indian stock markets have braved it all in calendar year 2024.
The value of private equity (PE)-backed mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in India reached a six-year low during the first seven months of the current calendar year, amid ongoing global uncertainties. The total value of these deals stood at $6.2 billion during the period, down from $9 billion in the same period last year, and lower than the $14 billion recorded during the corresponding period in 2019, according to data from LSEG Deals Intelligence. PE funds pool capital from investors, including high-net-worth individuals, to invest in high-return opportunities.
India's economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised downward to 6.3 per cent, and despite a projected moderation, the country remains one of the fastest-growing large economies, supported by resilient consumption and government spending, the United Nations has said.
A strong appetite for gold on Friday's Dhanteras is expected this year due to auspicious reasons and geopolitical concerns, continuing the 2022 trend driven by pent-up COVID demand. Compared to last year's Dhanteras, gold prices have jumped 22 per cent and silver prices by 21 per cent, respectively. "Gold and silver are good for portfolio diversification, especially in times of geopolitical turbulence.
Analysts expect Nifty to rise up by to 6 per cent in six months, with intermittent corrections likely due to global factors.
In 2022, gold emerged as the top performer among all conventional asset classes with over 14 per cent returns mainly owing to the depreciation of the rupee.
Gold prices advanced Rs 700 to reach a new lifetime high of Rs 91,950 per 10 grams in the national capital on Wednesday on the back of continued buying by jewellers ahead of wedding season, according to the All India Sarafa Association. Besides, increased tensions in the Middle East and concerns about the US economic slowdown have kept the demand for safe-haven assets intact.
From the 30-share Sensex firms, Tata Motors, Bajaj Finance, Eternal, Adani Ports, Tata Steel, Titan, Mahindra & Mahindra and Power Grid were among the gainers. Asian Paints, Sun Pharma, ITC, Nestle, Reliance Industries and HCL Tech were among the laggards.
With the prediction of an above normal monsoon in 2024, the government is expecting food prices to come down, the finance ministry's monthly economic report for March has said. The report, released on Thursday, said robust foreign inflows and comfortable trade deficits were expected to keep the rupee within a comfortable range. "Further easing of food prices is on the anvil as IMD (India Meteorological Department) has predicted above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season, which is likely to lead to higher production, assuming good spatial and temporal distribution of the rainfall," the monthly report, released by the Department of Economic Affairs, said.
Housing demand should improve nationwide after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut the repo rate by a larger-than-expected 50 basis points (bps) on Friday, said real estate industry executives. The rate cut comes after housing sales in top Indian cities in the first quarter of 2025 dipped 28 per cent due to skyrocketing residential property prices and geopolitical headwinds, according to Anarock.
Gold future prices sustained upward trend for the fourth straight session by surging Rs 2,048 to hit a fresh record high of Rs 100,000 per 10 grams as investors rushed to safe havens after US President Donald Trump indicated plans to overhaul Federal Reserve amid continuing global trade war jitters. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), the August delivery contract of the yellow metal bounced by Rs 2,048 or 2.1 per cent to hit a fresh peak of Rs 100,000 per 10 grams in the mid-session trade.
The meltdown in Dalal Street that wiped out investor wealth to the tune of 44 trillion in 2025 also seems to be having a ripple effect on the country's vibrant automobile retail sales.
'Expect India to keep doing well irrespective of geopolitics.'
'Geopolitical stability could remove the crude oil risk premium.'
The $22.8 billion CK Hutchison ports deal intensifies geopolitical tensions between the US and China. Chinese media has already called it 'a betrayal of all Chinese people'. Shyam G Menon explains how the proposed sale will reshapes global trade infrastructure.
'India has the potential to grow at more than 7%, with the monetary policy providing a supportive hand.'
Wholesale price inflation moderated to 2.31 per cent in January due to the decline in prices of food items especially vegetables, government data released on Friday showed. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation was 2.37 per cent in December 2024. It was 0.33 per cent in January 2024.
Gold prices could hit the $3500 an ounce (oz) mark in the next 18 months - up around 13 per cent from the current levels - given the global uncertainties and aided by investment demand, said analysts at BofA Securities in a recent note. Uncertainty around Trump Administration trade policies, BofA said, could continue to push the US dollar (USD) lower, further supporting gold prices near-term.
Rediff reports on the reasons behind this dramatic shift.
ABB reported a weak quarter. Revenue was at Rs 2,910 crore, up only 5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), with operating profit at Rs 540 crore, up 23 per cent and net profit at Rs 440 crore.
Domestic rating agency ICRA on Monday said Indian companies are likely to clock 7-8 per cent revenue growth during the March quarter of the current fiscal year, led by revival in rural demand and uptick in government spending. ICRA expects the private capital expenditure (capex) cycle to remain measured in view of the uncertainties around geopolitical developments and relatively subdued outlook on merchandise exports from India.
The Reserve Bank is unlikely to cut the benchmark interest rate in its forthcoming bi-monthly monetary policy review later in the week as retail inflation is still a cause of concern, and there is a possibility of the Middle East crisis deteriorating further, impacting crude oil and commodity prices, say experts.
FMCG major Hindustan Unilever Ltd on Thursday reported an increase of 12.74 per cent in its consolidated net profit at Rs 2,601 crore for the fourth quarter ended March 31, 2023. The company had posted a net profit of Rs 2,307 crore in the January-March quarter of the previous fiscal. Its revenue from sales during the quarter under review stood at Rs 14,926 crore, up 10.83 per cent, as against Rs 13,468 crore in the corresponding period a year ago, Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUL) said in a regulatory filing.
TVS Motor Company met expectations in terms of revenue and posted a strong margin performance in Q1FY25. The key drivers were material cost savings and a better mix. The domestic demand outlook looks good with a rural rebound but geopolitical uncertainties in key export markets may dent overall growth.
Foreign investors have continued selling in the Indian market, pulling out a massive Rs 85,790 crore (around $10.2 billion) from equities this month due to Chinese stimulus measures, attractive stock valuations, and the elevated pricing of domestic equities. October is turning into the worst-ever month in terms of foreign fund outflows. In March 2020, FPIs withdrew Rs 61,973 crore from equities.
'Increasingly, they treat gold as a financial asset in their portfolio rather than just as jewellery.'
The surge in volatility across the globe sparked by Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to an increase in prices of gold and silver - considered to be safe-haven investment bets. In the past month, silver funds have delivered returns of 7.34 per cent, while gold funds on an average have risen around 6 per cent. In comparison, the benchmark Nifty has declined 4 per cent. Fund managers say precious commodities act as a good hedge against inflation and phases of geopolitical uncertainty.
Facing criticism from the government over the central bank prioritising inflation over growth, the new RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Monday said that prospects of the Indian economy are expected to improve on the back of high consumer and business confidence in 2025. "As we strive to preserve financial stability to support a higher growth path for the Indian economy, our focus remains steadfast on maintaining stability of financial institutions and, more broadly, systemic stability," Malhotra said in foreword to the Financial Stability Report.
Private equity (PE) investments in India have fallen to a 6-year low at $24.2 billion in the financial year ending March 2024. Investments via PE deals are down 47 per cent compared to FY23, when private equity deals worth $45.8 billion were signed. According to data sourced from Bloomberg, PE firms had signed record deals worth $80 billion in the financial year ending March 2022.
From the 30-share Sensex pack, Mahindra & Mahindra, Infosys, HCL Technologies, Adani Ports, Bajaj Finance, Tech Mahindra, Titan, Tata Consultancy Services, Reliance Industries and Power Grid were among the laggards. On the other hand, State Bank of India was the only gainer.
The Survey is authored by Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran and his team.
As the Indian stock markets tumble under the panic set off by US President Donald Trump's tariff tantrums, three market experts weigh in on the reasons behind this fall, how much pain is left and how should investors adapt their strategies to invest in markets.
India is preoccupied with analysing the US sanctions, which may cut off India's access to discounted Russian crude and force it to buy at market prices.
'Indian private universities can provide world-class education at one fourth the cost, home comforts, and direct links to Indian and global industries.'
For investors who missed the initial IPO frenzy, the market correction is an opportunity to selectively invest in promising names, but patience and careful evaluation remain the key.
'Future market gains will likely depend primarily on earnings growth.'
